TRREB released its June 2026 Market Watch on July 3, and it reads like a confirmation of what May hinted at: the market is tightening. Sales across the Greater Toronto Area grew strongly compared to a year ago while new listings fell again, and for the first time in months TRREB is talking openly about renewed price growth ahead. Here's the GTA picture, where Durham sits within it, and what the numbers say specifically about Ajax.
The GTA headline: the tightening continues
The two numbers that carried May's story moved further in the same direction. Sales rose 9.4% from June of last year to 6,770, while new listings fell 12.9% to 17,282. Active inventory at month-end was down 13.5% year over year. For the first half of 2026 as a whole, sales are now running ahead of the same period in 2025 with far fewer homes coming to market — the classic setup for the slack in a market to get absorbed.
On a month-over-month basis (seasonally adjusted), sales were up from May while new listings were down — and, notably, both the average selling price and the HPI benchmark ticked up slightly from May. Year over year, prices remain lower: the average GTA sale of $1,058,658 was 3.9% below June 2025, and the broader HPI benchmark — the like-for-like measure that strips out the changing mix of what sells each month — was down 5.4%. But that annual decline has been narrowing for several months now (it was 6.7% in May). TRREB called 2026 a "year of two halves," and its read on the second half is more competition between buyers, accelerating transactions, and — if the tightening holds — selling prices moving back in line with 2025 and eventually posting increases.
Where Durham fits
Closer to home, Durham Region's benchmark home sat at $823,700 in June, down 5.41% year over year. That's a meaningfully smaller decline than the 6.84% Durham posted in May — the price floor is firming up here too.
The Ajax read
Ajax's benchmark — the value of a typical Ajax home — came in at $847,800, down 6.65% from a year ago, essentially the same annual pace as May. What the benchmark doesn't show is how briskly Ajax is actually trading: 96 homes changed hands in June, the typical sale took just 20 days — faster than the GTA's 29 — and sellers averaged 100% of their asking price, against 98% GTA-wide. Softer on paper, but tight on the ground. As always, the single headline hides a real spread by home type:
What it means if you're in Ajax
For sellers, the June data is genuinely encouraging: homes here are selling in three weeks at full asking on average, and inventory keeps shrinking. That said, "average" is doing real work in that sentence — the homes achieving those results are the ones prepared and priced to today's market, not to 2025's. For buyers, the window of buying below last year's prices is still open, but TRREB's own forecast is that it narrows through the fall. The condo segments — townhouses and apartments — remain the softest and offer the most negotiating room, while well-priced detached and freehold homes are increasingly competitive.
The caveat worth repeating: these are GTA- and Ajax-wide aggregates. What they can't tell you is what a specific street, model, or price band is doing right now — and that's the number that decides whether a given listing is priced fairly.
The figures above are aggregate, anonymized market statistics drawn from TRREB's June 2026 Market Watch and the TRREB/Altus MLS Home Price Index. This article is general market information, not financial, mortgage, or investment advice; please consult a licensed professional about your specific situation.