TRREB released its May 2026 Market Watch today, and the headline is a market quietly tightening. Across the Greater Toronto Area, more homes changed hands than a year ago while far fewer came up for sale — the kind of shift that tends to put a floor under prices. Here's the GTA picture, where Durham sits within it, and what the numbers say specifically about Ajax.
The GTA headline: more sales, fewer listings
Two numbers carry the story. Sales rose 6.3% from May of last year to 6,583, while new listings fell 18.9% to 17,698. Active inventory at month-end was down 13.3% year over year. When buying activity climbs as the supply of homes shrinks, the slack in the market gets absorbed — and that's exactly what TRREB described: competition picking up in some neighbourhoods, with the price trend expected to flatten and eventually turn upward.
On a month-over-month basis (seasonally adjusted), sales were up roughly 10% from April and new listings edged lower — a second signal of tightening. Prices, for now, are still below last year. The average GTA sale of $1,069,700 was 4.6% lower than May 2025, and the broader HPI benchmark — a cleaner, like-for-like measure that strips out the changing mix of what sells each month — was down 6.7% year over year. TRREB's read is that improved affordability, from both softer prices and lower borrowing costs, is drawing buyers back; and that if sales keep strengthening relative to listings, selling prices level off and start to grow as the market moves into 2027.
Where Durham fits
Closer to home, Durham Region's benchmark home sat at $827,900 in May, down 6.84% year over year — broadly in step with the GTA-wide pace.
The Ajax read
Ajax's benchmark — the value of a typical Ajax home — came in at $861,100, down 6.63% from a year ago. Worth noting: that's holding a touch better than Durham overall and tracks close to the GTA-wide trend, so Ajax isn't lagging its county. As always, the single headline hides a real spread by home type:
What it means if you're in Ajax
For sellers, a tightening market with shrinking inventory rewards a well-prepared, well-priced listing — and the Ajax benchmark holding slightly better than Durham's is a point in your favour. For buyers, the flip side is just as real: you're still buying below last year's peak, and the condo segments — apartments especially — have softened the most, which is usually where there's the most room to negotiate. Where the market is competitive, though, lowball offers on well-priced detached and town homes tend to go nowhere.
The one caveat worth repeating: these are GTA- and Ajax-wide aggregates. What they can't tell you is what a specific street, model, or price band is actually doing right now — and that's the number that decides whether a given listing is priced fairly.
The figures above are aggregate, anonymized market statistics drawn from TRREB's May 2026 Market Watch and the TRREB/Altus MLS Home Price Index. This article is general market information, not financial, mortgage, or investment advice; please consult a licensed professional about your specific situation.