Blog · For Sellers

The first two weeks decide the price — what 4,301 Oshawa sales say about time on market

Shan Perinpanathan, Broker · The Renavu Team · Royal LePage Ignite Realty · Analysis of 4,301 Oshawa sales from TRREB data, September 2021–September 2026

Every seller in Oshawa is told the same thing: price it right and it will sell. It is good advice and almost useless, because nobody attaches a number to it. So we attached one.

We took every Oshawa residential resale that closed in the last five years — 4,301 sales — and grouped them by how long they sat on the market. Then we looked at what each group actually got, as a share of what it asked.

4,301
Oshawa sales analysed
101.1%
Of asking, sold in week one
96.4%
Of asking, sold after 60 days
~$34,000
The gap, on a typical Oshawa home

What the numbers say

Each bar below is a group of Oshawa sales, sorted by how long the home sat on the market. The baseline is the asking price, so a bar above the line means that group sold for more than it asked, and a bar below means less.

100% asking 101.1% First week 0-7 days n=869 100.0% Second week 8-14 days n=1,108 98.2% Weeks 3-4 15-30 days n=1,254 97.2% Second month 31-60 days n=714 96.4% Beyond 60 60+ days n=356
Median sold price as a share of the asking price, by time on market. 4,301 Oshawa residential resales, September 2021 to September 2026. Bars measure distance from the asking price, so the baseline is 100% rather than zero. Source: TRREB sold data, analysed by The Renavu Team.
First week — 0-7 days869 sales · 20.2% of the market · 64.8% sold at or above asking
101.1%
Second week — 8-14 days1,108 sales · 25.8% of the market · 50.5% sold at or above asking
100.0%
Weeks 3-4 — 15-30 days1,254 sales · 29.2% of the market · 28.5% sold at or above asking
98.2%
Second month — 31-60 days714 sales · 16.6% of the market · 15.3% sold at or above asking
97.2%
Beyond 60 — 60+ days356 sales · 8.3% of the market · 12.6% sold at or above asking
96.4%

Two things jump out. The first is the spread: 4.7 percentage points between the fastest group and the slowest. On a $720,000 Oshawa home that is roughly $34,000 — more than most sellers pay in commission, and considerably more than most spend preparing the house.

The second is the share of buyers who paid full price or better. In the first week, 64.8% of homes sold at or above asking. Past sixty days, 12.6% did. Competition does not decay gently. It falls off a cliff somewhere around the end of the first month.

This is not just cheap homes selling quickly

That was our first objection to our own finding, so we checked it. The median sold price in each group:

First week $736,000 · second week $710,000 · weeks three to four $705,000 · second month $720,000 · beyond sixty days $700,000.

Essentially flat, and if anything the fastest sales were the most expensive homes. Whatever separates a five-day sale from a ninety-day sale in Oshawa, it is not that one is a starter condo and the other is a mansion. These are comparable homes with different outcomes.

Where the effect is strongest: semi-detached

Broken out by home type, one segment behaves very differently from the rest.

Semi-detached474 sales · median 13 days · median sold $643,000
105.9% → 96.0%
Detached2,794 sales · median 15 days · median sold $780,000
101.2% → 96.6%
Townhouse (freehold)351 sales · median 19 days · median sold $720,000
100.0% → 97.3%
Condo townhouse329 sales · median 21 days · median sold $550,000
100.0% → 97.6%
Condo apartment212 sales · median 32 days · median sold $376,500
98.1% → 95.4%

Each figure shows what that type got when it sold in the first week, and what it got when it took more than sixty days.

Semi-detached homes swing nearly ten percentage points — 105.9% down to 96.0%. On a typical Oshawa semi that is about $64,000 riding on the first fortnight. Semis are the tightest, most directly comparable segment in the city: buyers can line up three of them on similar streets and price them against each other in an afternoon. When the product is that substitutable, being priced slightly wrong is obvious immediately, and being priced slightly right starts a competition.

Condo apartments sit at the other end. They take a median of 32 days, more than twice as long as a semi, and never reach asking in either group. That is a segment with more supply than urgency.

What we are not claiming

This is an association measured across 4,301 sales. It is not proof that price alone caused it, and we would rather say so than oversell a number.

A home that sells in five days may have been better prepared, better photographed, decluttered, or simply on a nicer street — not merely better priced. Some of the effect is mechanical, too: a home priced below what buyers were willing to pay will sell quickly and above asking almost by definition. And deliberately underpricing to provoke a bidding war is a real strategy in this market, which is part of what the first-week row is showing you.

The causation also runs backwards for some of these. A listing that lingers often has a problem that is not the price — a difficult layout, a rental item nobody wants to assume, photographs taken in November. Cutting the price does not fix any of those, though it is usually the first thing tried.

What the data supports is narrower and still useful: the first two weeks are when an Oshawa home has the most attention it will ever have, 46% of all sales conclude inside that window, and the homes that convert during it do measurably better than the ones that do not.

What a seller can do with this

  1. Treat the launch as the event, not the listing date. Photographs, staging, cleaning and repairs need to be finished before the listing goes live, not during week two. You get one first week.
  2. Price against what sold, not what is listed. Active listings tell you what other sellers hope for. Sold data tells you what buyers actually paid. Those are different numbers and only one of them is evidence.
  3. Decide your response to a quiet first week in advance. Agreeing the plan while the house is still fresh is a calmer conversation than having it on day forty.
  4. If you own a semi, take the pricing conversation seriously. It is the segment where the first two weeks are worth the most, by a wide margin.

How we calculated this

Source: TRREB sold data for Oshawa, residential resale, sale transactions only — no leases. Contract dates from September 2021 to September 2026. Sold-to-asking is measured against the list price recorded on the sold record.

We used medians rather than averages throughout, and excluded records with a list price under $50,000 or a sold price outside $100,000 to $5,000,000. That is not cosmetic: the raw feed contains a small number of records carrying a placeholder asking price of one dollar, and a single one of those is enough to turn an average sold-to-asking ratio into a five-digit number. Medians are unmoved by it. We found 336 such placeholder records in the live listing feed while preparing this piece.

Home-type breakdowns are shown only where a segment had at least 100 sales. Everything here is an aggregate; no individual sale is identified, in keeping with TRREB's rules on sold data.

You are welcome to quote these figures with attribution to The Renavu Team. If you are a journalist or researcher and want the same analysis for another Durham municipality, ask us — we will run it.

What is your Oshawa home worth today?

Our estimate is built from the same sold data as the analysis above, with the adjustments shown rather than hidden. If you are thinking about selling this year, the most useful thing you can do is find out what the evidence says before you need the number.

Analysis prepared by The Renavu Team from TRREB sold data. Figures describe past market activity in Oshawa and are not a prediction or a guarantee of the outcome of any individual sale. Median sold-to-asking ratios reflect what groups of homes achieved historically; your home's result will depend on its condition, location, timing and the market at the moment it is listed. This is general market information, not an appraisal and not financial advice. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by TRREB or PropTx.

Share this article
FacebookLinkedInXWhatsAppEmail
Want the numbers for your street?

We'll share the exact sold comparables.

Tell us the home type, pocket, and price range you care about — we'll pull the specific sold figures that don't show up in any public report and help you read them against your plans.

One team. No spam. We reach out once — when you ask. We don't sell your data.

Keep reading

Local history

The war that built Durham: six places between Ajax and Bowmanville where the Second World War actually happened

If you live in south Ajax, your street is almost certainly named after a sailor. A shell-filling plant the size of twelve square kilometres stood where your subdivision is. Ten kilometres east, Britain ran a secret agent school on the lakeshore. In Bowmanville, German U-boat commanders tunnelled under a boys' school. This is the history under Durham Region — what happened, what is still standing, and how to go and see it.

September 12, 2026
Market data

The same house, $357,000 apart — what a four-bedroom detached costs across Whitby

A four-bedroom detached home sold for a median of $1,195,000 in Rural Whitby and $838,000 in Downtown Whitby over the past two years. Same bedroom count, same house type, one town — a 43% difference that is location and nothing else. And the neighbourhoods where buyers bid over asking are not the expensive ones. Ten Whitby communities, 898 sales, with the method shown.

September 7, 2026
← All articles